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Hércules II vs Valencia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Hércules II
Hércules II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valencia II
Valencia II
4/24/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 37Ciudad Deportiva de Alicante F-11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hércules II35%
×Draw31%
Valencia II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules II
1.03
Valencia II
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hércules II
1.12
Valencia II
0.94

allows per match

Hércules II
1.06
Valencia II
0.94

finishing

Hércules II+0.00on par
Valencia II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules II ↓

Valencia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hércules II or draw
66%
Hércules II or Valencia II
69%
Draw or Valencia II
65%

Winning margin

Hércules II wins by 2+
14%
Valencia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hércules II 1+ goals
64%
Hércules II 2+ goals
28%
Hércules II 3+ goals
9%
Valencia II 1+ goals
63%
Valencia II 2+ goals
26%
Valencia II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hércules II (draw refunded)
51%
Valencia II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Valencia II away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules II attack 1.12 + Valencia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Valencia II attack 0.94 + Hércules II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Hércules II scores more
35%
level
31%
Valencia II scores more
34%

Hércules II at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Hércules II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hércules II 2 – 0 Valencia II

Hércules II beat Valencia II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Alicante F-11 in Alicante.