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Valencia II vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Valencia II
Valencia II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Castellón II
Castellón II
9/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 1Estadio Antonio Puchades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Valencia II65%
×Draw20%
Castellón II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia II
2.10
Castellón II
0.89

Valencia II creates 136% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 67 away

creates per match

Valencia II
2.67
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Valencia II
0.56
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Valencia II+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia II ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Valencia II or draw
85%
Valencia II or Castellón II
80%
Draw or Castellón II
35%

Winning margin

Valencia II wins by 2+
41%
Castellón II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Valencia II 1+ goals
88%
Valencia II 2+ goals
62%
Valencia II 3+ goals
35%
Castellón II 1+ goals
59%
Castellón II 2+ goals
22%
Castellón II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Valencia II (draw refunded)
81%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia II attack 2.67 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.10

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Valencia II defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Valencia II scores more
65%
level
20%
Castellón II scores more
15%

Valencia II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Valencia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Valencia II 3–1 Castellón II

Valencia II beat Castellón II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Puchades in Paterna.