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Castellón II vs Valencia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Castellón II
Castellón II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valencia II
Valencia II
1/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 20Camp de futbol Javier Marquina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Castellón II40%
×Draw29%
Valencia II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón II
1.21
Valencia II
1.05

Castellón II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 18 away

creates per match

Castellón II
1.48
Valencia II
0.94

allows per match

Castellón II
1.16
Valencia II
0.94

finishing

Castellón II+0.00on par
Valencia II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón II ↓

Valencia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Castellón II or draw
68%
Castellón II or Valencia II
71%
Draw or Valencia II
60%

Winning margin

Castellón II wins by 2+
17%
Valencia II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Castellón II 1+ goals
70%
Castellón II 2+ goals
34%
Castellón II 3+ goals
12%
Valencia II 1+ goals
65%
Valencia II 2+ goals
28%
Valencia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Castellón II (draw refunded)
56%
Valencia II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Valencia II away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón II attack 1.48 + Valencia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Valencia II attack 0.94 + Castellón II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Castellón II scores more
40%
level
29%
Valencia II scores more
32%

Castellón II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Castellón II 2–0 Valencia II

Castellón II beat Valencia II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 5, 2022.

The match was played at Camp de futbol Javier Marquina in Castelló de la Plana.