Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Valdepeñas vs Marchamalo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Valdepeñas
Valdepeñas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Marchamalo
Marchamalo
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 32Estadio Municipal de Valdepeñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Valdepeñas30%
×Draw29%
Marchamalo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdepeñas
0.97
Marchamalo
1.19

Marchamalo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

Valdepeñas
0.65
Marchamalo
1.03

allows per match

Valdepeñas
1.35
Marchamalo
1.29

finishing

Valdepeñas+0.00on par
Marchamalo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdepeñas ↓

Marchamalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Valdepeñas or draw
59%
Valdepeñas or Marchamalo
71%
Draw or Marchamalo
70%

Winning margin

Valdepeñas wins by 2+
11%
Marchamalo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Valdepeñas 1+ goals
62%
Valdepeñas 2+ goals
25%
Valdepeñas 3+ goals
7%
Marchamalo 1+ goals
70%
Marchamalo 2+ goals
33%
Marchamalo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Valdepeñas (draw refunded)
42%
Marchamalo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdepeñas at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Marchamalo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdepeñas attack 0.65 + Marchamalo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.97

Marchamalo attack 1.03 + Valdepeñas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Valdepeñas scores more
30%
level
29%
Marchamalo scores more
41%

Marchamalo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Valdepeñas 0–2 Marchamalo

Marchamalo beat Valdepeñas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Valdepeñas in Valdepeñas.