Marchamalo 2–1 Valdepeñas: Result & Stats

Marchamalo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Valdepeñas

12/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 15Estadio La Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Marchamalo53%

×Draw28%

Valdepeñas20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarchamaloExpected goals in this matchValdepeñas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.73

Marchamalo

1.39

Valdepeñas

0.73

Marchamalo creates 90% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

1.30

creates per match

0.41

1.05

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Marchamalo

1.30

Valdepeñas

0.41

allows per match

Marchamalo

1.05

Valdepeñas

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marchamalo+0.00on par

Valdepeñas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marchamalo ↓

Valdepeñas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Marchamalo or draw

80%

Marchamalo or Valdepeñas

72%

Draw or Valdepeñas

47%

Winning margin

Marchamalo wins by 2+

26%

Valdepeñas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Marchamalo 1+ goals

75%

Marchamalo 2+ goals

40%

Marchamalo 3+ goals

16%

Valdepeñas 1+ goals

52%

Valdepeñas 2+ goals

17%

Valdepeñas 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Marchamalo (draw refunded)

73%

Valdepeñas (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marchamalo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Valdepeñas away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marchamalo attack 1.30 + Valdepeñas defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Valdepeñas attack 0.41 + Marchamalo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Marchamalo scores more

53%

level

28%

Valdepeñas scores more

20%

Marchamalo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Marchamalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff