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Valdefierro vs Tarazona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Valdefierro
Valdefierro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tarazona
Tarazona
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 27CDM Valdefierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valdefierro26%
×Draw24%
Tarazona50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdefierro
1.16
Tarazona
1.71

Tarazona creates 47% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 15 away

creates per match

Valdefierro
1.32
Tarazona
1.87

allows per match

Valdefierro
1.55
Tarazona
1.00

finishing

Valdefierro+0.00on par
Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdefierro ↓

Tarazona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Valdefierro or draw
50%
Valdefierro or Tarazona
76%
Draw or Tarazona
74%

Winning margin

Valdefierro wins by 2+
10%
Tarazona wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Valdefierro 1+ goals
69%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
32%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
11%
Tarazona 1+ goals
82%
Tarazona 2+ goals
51%
Tarazona 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Valdefierro (draw refunded)
34%
Tarazona (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdefierro at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Tarazona away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdefierro attack 1.32 + Tarazona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tarazona attack 1.87 + Valdefierro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Valdefierro scores more
26%
level
24%
Tarazona scores more
50%

Tarazona at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Valdefierro 1–2 Tarazona

Tarazona beat Valdefierro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at CDM Valdefierro in Zaragoza.