Tarazona 6–1 Valdefierro: Result & Stats

Tarazona

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Valdefierro

9/22/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 6Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tarazona79%

×Draw15%

Valdefierro6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TarazonaExpected goals in this matchValdefierro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.42

Tarazona

2.24

Valdefierro

0.42

Tarazona creates 433% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

2.31

creates per match

0.45

0.38

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Tarazona

2.31

Valdefierro

0.45

allows per match

Tarazona

0.38

Valdefierro

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par

Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Valdefierro →

0–07%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–018%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–013%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–07%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw

94%

Tarazona or Valdefierro

85%

Draw or Valdefierro

21%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+

55%

Valdefierro wins by 2+

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals

89%

Tarazona 2+ goals

65%

Tarazona 3+ goals

38%

Valdefierro 1+ goals

34%

Valdefierro 2+ goals

Valdefierro 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)

93%

Valdefierro (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.38 · 13 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 2.31 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.24

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + Tarazona defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 79%?"

Tarazona scores more

79%

level

15%

Valdefierro scores more

Tarazona at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff