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Valdefierro vs Brea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Valdefierro
Valdefierro
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Brea
Brea
12/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 20CDM Valdefierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Valdefierro35%
×Draw28%
Brea38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdefierro
1.17
Brea
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 46 away

creates per match

Valdefierro
1.32
Brea
0.91

allows per match

Valdefierro
1.55
Brea
1.02

finishing

Valdefierro+0.00on par
Brea+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdefierro ↓

Brea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Valdefierro or draw
62%
Valdefierro or Brea
72%
Draw or Brea
65%

Winning margin

Valdefierro wins by 2+
14%
Brea wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Valdefierro 1+ goals
69%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
33%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
11%
Brea 1+ goals
71%
Brea 2+ goals
35%
Brea 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Valdefierro (draw refunded)
48%
Brea (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdefierro at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Brea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdefierro attack 1.32 + Brea defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Brea attack 0.91 + Valdefierro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Valdefierro scores more
35%
level
28%
Brea scores more
38%

Brea at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Valdefierro 0–4 Brea

Brea beat Valdefierro 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at CDM Valdefierro in Zaragoza.