Brea vs Valdefierro: Preview & Prediction

Brea

CANC

14:00

Valdefierro

5/10/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 41Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Brea66%

×Draw22%

Valdefierro12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BreaExpected goals in this matchValdefierro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.59

Brea

1.79

Valdefierro

0.59

Brea creates 203% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

1.42

creates per match

0.45

0.73

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Brea

1.42

Valdefierro

0.45

allows per match

Brea

0.73

Valdefierro

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brea+0.00on par

Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brea ↓

Valdefierro →

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Brea or draw

88%

Brea or Valdefierro

78%

Draw or Valdefierro

34%

Winning margin

Brea wins by 2+

39%

Valdefierro wins by 2+

Team goals

Brea 1+ goals

83%

Brea 2+ goals

53%

Brea 3+ goals

26%

Valdefierro 1+ goals

45%

Valdefierro 2+ goals

12%

Valdefierro 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Brea (draw refunded)

85%

Valdefierro (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brea at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brea attack 1.42 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.79

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + Brea defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Brea scores more

66%

level

22%

Valdefierro scores more

12%

Brea at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Brea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brea face Valdefierro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 returns with Brea hosting Valdefierro. Match starts May 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Brea host Valdefierro at Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Brea vs Valdefierro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Brea face Valdefierro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)