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Valdefierro vs Belchite 97 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Valdefierro
Valdefierro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Belchite 97
Belchite 97
2/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 17CDM Valdefierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Valdefierro37%
×Draw27%
Belchite 9735%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdefierro
1.25
Belchite 97
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 95 away

creates per match

Valdefierro
1.32
Belchite 97
0.87

allows per match

Valdefierro
1.55
Belchite 97
1.18

finishing

Valdefierro+0.00on par
Belchite 97+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdefierro ↓

Belchite 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Valdefierro or draw
65%
Valdefierro or Belchite 97
73%
Draw or Belchite 97
63%

Winning margin

Valdefierro wins by 2+
16%
Belchite 97 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Valdefierro 1+ goals
71%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
36%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
13%
Belchite 97 1+ goals
70%
Belchite 97 2+ goals
34%
Belchite 97 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Valdefierro (draw refunded)
51%
Belchite 97 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdefierro at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Belchite 97 away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.18 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdefierro attack 1.32 + Belchite 97 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Belchite 97 attack 0.87 + Valdefierro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Valdefierro scores more
37%
level
27%
Belchite 97 scores more
35%

Valdefierro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Valdefierro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valdefierro vs Belchite 97

Valdefierro and Belchite 97 drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at CDM Valdefierro in Zaragoza.