Belchite 97 1–1 Valdefierro: Result & Stats

Belchite 97

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valdefierro

12/22/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 19Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Belchite 9757%

×Draw25%

Valdefierro18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belchite 97Expected goals in this matchValdefierro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.77

Belchite 97

1.58

Valdefierro

0.77

Belchite 97 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 31 away

1.01

creates per match

0.45

1.09

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Belchite 97

1.01

Valdefierro

0.45

allows per match

Belchite 97

1.09

Valdefierro

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belchite 97+0.00on par

Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belchite 97 ↓

Valdefierro →

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Belchite 97 or draw

82%

Belchite 97 or Valdefierro

75%

Draw or Valdefierro

43%

Winning margin

Belchite 97 wins by 2+

30%

Valdefierro wins by 2+

Team goals

Belchite 97 1+ goals

79%

Belchite 97 2+ goals

47%

Belchite 97 3+ goals

21%

Valdefierro 1+ goals

54%

Valdefierro 2+ goals

18%

Valdefierro 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)

76%

Valdefierro (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Belchite 97 at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Belchite 97 attack 1.01 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + Belchite 97 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Belchite 97 scores more

57%

level

25%

Valdefierro scores more

18%

Belchite 97 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Belchite 97 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff