Valdefierro 1–2 Atlético Monzón: Result & Stats

Valdefierro

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Monzón

1/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 5CDM Valdefierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Valdefierro33%

×Draw26%

Atlético Monzón41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValdefierroExpected goals in this matchAtlético Monzón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.39

Valdefierro

1.23

Atlético Monzón

1.39

Atlético Monzón creates 13% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 115 away

1.32

creates per match

1.22

1.55

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Valdefierro

1.32

Atlético Monzón

1.22

allows per match

Valdefierro

1.55

Atlético Monzón

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valdefierro+0.00on par

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdefierro ↓

Atlético Monzón →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Valdefierro or draw

59%

Valdefierro or Atlético Monzón

74%

Draw or Atlético Monzón

67%

Winning margin

Valdefierro wins by 2+

14%

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Valdefierro 1+ goals

71%

Valdefierro 2+ goals

35%

Valdefierro 3+ goals

13%

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Monzón 2+ goals

40%

Atlético Monzón 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Valdefierro (draw refunded)

45%

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valdefierro at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valdefierro attack 1.32 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Valdefierro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Valdefierro scores more

33%

level

26%

Atlético Monzón scores more

41%

Atlético Monzón at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff