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Atlético Monzón vs Valdefierro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valdefierro
Valdefierro
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 16Estadio Isidro Calderón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Monzón65%
×Draw23%
Valdefierro12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Monzón
1.72
Valdefierro
0.59

Atlético Monzón creates 192% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 31 away

creates per match

Atlético Monzón
1.28
Valdefierro
0.45

allows per match

Atlético Monzón
0.74
Valdefierro
2.16

finishing

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par
Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Monzón ↓

Valdefierro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Monzón or draw
88%
Atlético Monzón or Valdefierro
77%
Draw or Valdefierro
35%

Winning margin

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
37%
Valdefierro wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
82%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
51%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
25%
Valdefierro 1+ goals
45%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
12%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
84%
Valdefierro (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Monzón at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.74 · 116 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Monzón attack 1.28 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.72

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + Atlético Monzón defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Atlético Monzón scores more
65%
level
23%
Valdefierro scores more
12%

Atlético Monzón at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Monzón 3 – 0 Valdefierro

Atlético Monzón beat Valdefierro 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Isidro Calderón in Monzón.