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Valbona vs Kastrioti Krujë — 1st Division 2019

Valbona
Valbona
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
3/26/20251st Division1st Division · Round 29Stadiumi Valbona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Valbona35%
×Draw26%
Kastrioti Krujë39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valbona
1.33
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 62 away

creates per match

Valbona
1.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.95

allows per match

Valbona
1.88
Kastrioti Krujë
1.66

finishing

Valbona+0.00on par
Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valbona ↓

Kastrioti Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Valbona or draw
61%
Valbona or Kastrioti Krujë
74%
Draw or Kastrioti Krujë
65%

Winning margin

Valbona wins by 2+
16%
Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Valbona 1+ goals
74%
Valbona 2+ goals
38%
Valbona 3+ goals
15%
Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
76%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
41%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Valbona (draw refunded)
47%
Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valbona at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Kastrioti Krujë away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valbona attack 1.00 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kastrioti Krujë attack 0.95 + Valbona defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valbona scores more
35%
level
26%
Kastrioti Krujë scores more
39%

Kastrioti Krujë at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Valbona 3–0 Kastrioti Krujë

Valbona beat Kastrioti Krujë 3-0 in 1st Division on March 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Valbona in Bajram Curri.