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Kastrioti Krujë vs Valbona — 1st Division 2019

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Valbona
Valbona
2/1/20251st Division1st Division · Round 21Stadiumi Redi Maloku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë53%
×Draw25%
Valbona22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kastrioti Krujë
1.59
Valbona
0.91

Kastrioti Krujë creates 75% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.52
Valbona
0.72

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.10
Valbona
1.67

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par
Valbona+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

Valbona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw
78%
Kastrioti Krujë or Valbona
75%
Draw or Valbona
47%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
28%
Valbona wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
80%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
47%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
21%
Valbona 1+ goals
60%
Valbona 2+ goals
23%
Valbona 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
71%
Valbona (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 63 matches

Valbona away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.52 + Valbona defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Valbona attack 0.72 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more
53%
level
25%
Valbona scores more
22%

Kastrioti Krujë at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Kastrioti Krujë 1–1 Valbona

Kastrioti Krujë and Valbona drew 1-1 in 1st Division on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Redi Maloku in Fushë-Krujë.