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Valašské Meziříčí vs Krnov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Valašské Meziříčí
Valašské Meziříčí
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Krnov
Krnov
8/18/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 3Stadion Valašské Meziřičí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Valašské Meziříčí62%
×Draw18%
Krnov19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valašské Meziříčí
2.55
Krnov
1.37

Valašské Meziříčí creates 86% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 43 away

creates per match

Valašské Meziříčí
2.09
Krnov
0.93

allows per match

Valašské Meziříčí
1.81
Krnov
3.02

finishing

Valašské Meziříčí+0.00on par
Krnov+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valašské Meziříčí ↓

Krnov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Valašské Meziříčí or draw
81%
Valašské Meziříčí or Krnov
82%
Draw or Krnov
38%

Winning margin

Valašské Meziříčí wins by 2+
41%
Krnov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Valašské Meziříčí 1+ goals
92%
Valašské Meziříčí 2+ goals
72%
Valašské Meziříčí 3+ goals
46%
Krnov 1+ goals
75%
Krnov 2+ goals
40%
Krnov 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Valašské Meziříčí (draw refunded)
76%
Krnov (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valašské Meziříčí at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

Krnov away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valašské Meziříčí attack 2.09 + Krnov defence 3.02 → ÷2 → 2.55

Krnov attack 0.93 + Valašské Meziříčí defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Valašské Meziříčí scores more
62%
level
18%
Krnov scores more
19%

Valašské Meziříčí at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Valašské Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Valašské Meziříčí 2–3 Krnov

Krnov beat Valašské Meziříčí 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Valašské Meziřičí in Valašské Meziříčí.