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Krnov vs Valašské Meziříčí — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Krnov
Krnov
FT
1 – 1
Valašské Meziříčí
Valašské Meziříčí
3/24/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 18Klaus Union Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Krnov40%
×Draw23%
Valašské Meziříčí37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krnov
1.64
Valašské Meziříčí
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 43 away

creates per match

Krnov
1.30
Valašské Meziříčí
1.63

allows per match

Krnov
1.53
Valašské Meziříčí
1.98

finishing

Krnov+0.00on par
Valašské Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krnov ↓

Valašské Meziříčí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Krnov or draw
63%
Krnov or Valašské Meziříčí
77%
Draw or Valašské Meziříčí
60%

Winning margin

Krnov wins by 2+
20%
Valašské Meziříčí wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Krnov 1+ goals
81%
Krnov 2+ goals
49%
Krnov 3+ goals
23%
Valašské Meziříčí 1+ goals
79%
Valašské Meziříčí 2+ goals
47%
Valašské Meziříčí 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Krnov (draw refunded)
52%
Valašské Meziříčí (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krnov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

Valašské Meziříčí away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krnov attack 1.30 + Valašské Meziříčí defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.64

Valašské Meziříčí attack 1.63 + Krnov defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Krnov scores more
40%
level
23%
Valašské Meziříčí scores more
37%

Krnov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Krnov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krnov vs Valašské Meziříčí

Krnov and Valašské Meziříčí drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Klaus Union Arena in Krnov.