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Valašské Meziříčí vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Valašské Meziříčí
Valašské Meziříčí
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
6/2/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 25Stadion Valašské Meziřičí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Valašské Meziříčí53%
×Draw20%
Beskyd Frenštát26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valašské Meziříčí
2.23
Beskyd Frenštát
1.52

Valašské Meziříčí creates 47% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

creates per match

Valašské Meziříčí
2.09
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Valašské Meziříčí
1.81
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Valašské Meziříčí+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valašské Meziříčí ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Valašské Meziříčí or draw
74%
Valašské Meziříčí or Beskyd Frenštát
80%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
47%

Winning margin

Valašské Meziříčí wins by 2+
32%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Valašské Meziříčí 1+ goals
89%
Valašské Meziříčí 2+ goals
65%
Valašské Meziříčí 3+ goals
38%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
78%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
45%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Valašské Meziříčí (draw refunded)
67%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valašské Meziříčí at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valašské Meziříčí attack 2.09 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.23

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Valašské Meziříčí defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Valašské Meziříčí scores more
53%
level
20%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
26%

Valašské Meziříčí at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Valašské Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Valašské Meziříčí 5–1 Beskyd Frenštát

Valašské Meziříčí beat Beskyd Frenštát 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Valašské Meziřičí in Valašské Meziříčí.