Beskyd Frenštát 2–2 Valašské Meziříčí

Beskyd Frenštát

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Valašské Meziříčí

8/13/2023

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 2Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát40%

×Draw22%

Valašské Meziříčí37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beskyd FrenštátExpected goals in this matchValašské Meziříčí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.71

Beskyd Frenštát

1.79

Valašské Meziříčí

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 43 away

1.59

creates per match

1.63

1.80

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.59

Valašské Meziříčí

1.63

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.80

Valašské Meziříčí

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Valašské Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Valašské Meziříčí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw

63%

Beskyd Frenštát or Valašské Meziříčí

78%

Draw or Valašské Meziříčí

60%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

21%

Valašské Meziříčí wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

83%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

53%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

26%

Valašské Meziříčí 1+ goals

82%

Valašské Meziříčí 2+ goals

51%

Valašské Meziříčí 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

52%

Valašské Meziříčí (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Valašské Meziříčí away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Valašské Meziříčí defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.79

Valašské Meziříčí attack 1.63 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

40%

level

22%

Valašské Meziříčí scores more

37%

Beskyd Frenštát at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beskyd Frenštát will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff