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Valadares Gaia W vs Sporting CP W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Valadares Gaia W
Valadares Gaia W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting CP W
Sporting CP W
11/9/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 8Estádio Dr. Jorge Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Valadares Gaia W19%
×Draw22%
Sporting CP W59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valadares Gaia W
0.97
Sporting CP W
1.90

Sporting CP W creates 96% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Valadares Gaia W
1.38
Sporting CP W
2.74

allows per match

Valadares Gaia W
1.05
Sporting CP W
0.57

finishing

Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par
Sporting CP W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valadares Gaia W ↓

Sporting CP W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Valadares Gaia W or draw
41%
Valadares Gaia W or Sporting CP W
78%
Draw or Sporting CP W
81%

Winning margin

Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+
6%
Sporting CP W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals
62%
Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals
25%
Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals
7%
Sporting CP W 1+ goals
85%
Sporting CP W 2+ goals
56%
Sporting CP W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)
24%
Sporting CP W (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valadares Gaia W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Sporting CP W away — creates 2.74, concedes 0.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.38 + Sporting CP W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.97

Sporting CP W attack 2.74 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Valadares Gaia W scores more
19%
level
22%
Sporting CP W scores more
59%

Sporting CP W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sporting CP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valadares Gaia W vs Sporting CP W

Sporting CP W beat Valadares Gaia W 1-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Sampaio in Pedroso, Vila Nova de Gaia.