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Sporting CP W vs Valadares Gaia W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Sporting CP W
Sporting CP W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valadares Gaia W
Valadares Gaia W
2/3/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 13CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sporting CP W66%
×Draw19%
Valadares Gaia W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP W
2.14
Valadares Gaia W
0.87

Sporting CP W creates 146% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sporting CP W
2.88
Valadares Gaia W
1.14

allows per match

Sporting CP W
0.60
Valadares Gaia W
1.40

finishing

Sporting CP W+0.00on par
Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP W ↓

Valadares Gaia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sporting CP W or draw
86%
Sporting CP W or Valadares Gaia W
81%
Draw or Valadares Gaia W
34%

Winning margin

Sporting CP W wins by 2+
42%
Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sporting CP W 1+ goals
88%
Sporting CP W 2+ goals
63%
Sporting CP W 3+ goals
36%
Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals
58%
Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals
22%
Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP W (draw refunded)
82%
Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.60 · 42 matches

Valadares Gaia W away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP W attack 2.88 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.14

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.14 + Sporting CP W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sporting CP W scores more
66%
level
19%
Valadares Gaia W scores more
14%

Sporting CP W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sporting CP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Sporting CP W 2–0 Valadares Gaia W

Sporting CP W beat Valadares Gaia W 2-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.