Valadares Gaia W 2–1 Sporting Braga W

Valadares Gaia W

FT

2 – 1

Sporting Braga W

1/28/2024

1a Divisão - Women · Round 12Complexo Desportivo de Valadares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Valadares Gaia W32%

×Draw25%

Sporting Braga W43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valadares Gaia WExpected goals in this matchSporting Braga W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.56

Valadares Gaia W

1.32

Sporting Braga W

1.56

Sporting Braga W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

1.38

creates per match

2.07

1.05

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Valadares Gaia W

1.38

Sporting Braga W

2.07

allows per match

Valadares Gaia W

1.05

Sporting Braga W

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par

Sporting Braga W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valadares Gaia W ↓

Sporting Braga W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Valadares Gaia W or draw

57%

Valadares Gaia W or Sporting Braga W

75%

Draw or Sporting Braga W

68%

Winning margin

Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+

14%

Sporting Braga W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals

73%

Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals

38%

Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals

15%

Sporting Braga W 1+ goals

79%

Sporting Braga W 2+ goals

46%

Sporting Braga W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)

43%

Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valadares Gaia W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Sporting Braga W away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.38 + Sporting Braga W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sporting Braga W attack 2.07 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Valadares Gaia W scores more

32%

level

25%

Sporting Braga W scores more

43%

Sporting Braga W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff