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Sporting Braga W vs Valadares Gaia W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Sporting Braga W
Sporting Braga W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valadares Gaia W
Valadares Gaia W
11/3/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 7Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sporting Braga W56%
×Draw23%
Valadares Gaia W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Braga W
1.85
Valadares Gaia W
1.06

Sporting Braga W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sporting Braga W
2.31
Valadares Gaia W
1.14

allows per match

Sporting Braga W
0.98
Valadares Gaia W
1.40

finishing

Sporting Braga W+0.00on par
Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga W ↓

Valadares Gaia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sporting Braga W or draw
78%
Sporting Braga W or Valadares Gaia W
77%
Draw or Valadares Gaia W
44%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga W wins by 2+
32%
Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sporting Braga W 1+ goals
84%
Sporting Braga W 2+ goals
55%
Sporting Braga W 3+ goals
28%
Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals
65%
Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals
29%
Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)
72%
Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Valadares Gaia W away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga W attack 2.31 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.85

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.14 + Sporting Braga W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sporting Braga W scores more
56%
level
23%
Valadares Gaia W scores more
22%

Sporting Braga W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Braga W vs Valadares Gaia W

Sporting Braga W beat Valadares Gaia W 3-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Braga.