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Valadares Gaia W vs Racing Seixal W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Valadares Gaia W
Valadares Gaia W
FT
0 – 0
Racing Seixal W
Racing Seixal W
11/18/20231a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 7Complexo Desportivo de Valadares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Valadares Gaia W35%
×Draw27%
Racing Seixal W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valadares Gaia W
1.23
Racing Seixal W
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

creates per match

Valadares Gaia W
1.38
Racing Seixal W
1.55

allows per match

Valadares Gaia W
1.05
Racing Seixal W
1.09

finishing

Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par
Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valadares Gaia W ↓

Racing Seixal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Valadares Gaia W or draw
62%
Valadares Gaia W or Racing Seixal W
73%
Draw or Racing Seixal W
65%

Winning margin

Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+
15%
Racing Seixal W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals
71%
Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals
35%
Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals
13%
Racing Seixal W 1+ goals
73%
Racing Seixal W 2+ goals
37%
Racing Seixal W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)
48%
Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valadares Gaia W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Racing Seixal W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.38 + Racing Seixal W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Racing Seixal W attack 1.55 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Valadares Gaia W scores more
35%
level
27%
Racing Seixal W scores more
38%

Racing Seixal W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing Seixal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Valadares Gaia W 0–0 Racing Seixal W

Valadares Gaia W and Racing Seixal W drew 0-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo de Valadares in Valadares.