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Racing Seixal W vs Valadares Gaia W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Racing Seixal W
Racing Seixal W
FT
0 – 1
Valadares Gaia W
Valadares Gaia W
3/23/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 18Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Racing Seixal W53%
×Draw26%
Valadares Gaia W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Seixal W
1.50
Valadares Gaia W
0.84

Racing Seixal W creates 79% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 42 away

creates per match

Racing Seixal W
1.59
Valadares Gaia W
1.14

allows per match

Racing Seixal W
0.55
Valadares Gaia W
1.40

finishing

Racing Seixal W+0.00on par
Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Seixal W ↓

Valadares Gaia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Racing Seixal W or draw
79%
Racing Seixal W or Valadares Gaia W
74%
Draw or Valadares Gaia W
47%

Winning margin

Racing Seixal W wins by 2+
27%
Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Racing Seixal W 1+ goals
78%
Racing Seixal W 2+ goals
44%
Racing Seixal W 3+ goals
19%
Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals
57%
Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals
21%
Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)
71%
Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Seixal W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Valadares Gaia W away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Seixal W attack 1.59 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.14 + Racing Seixal W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Racing Seixal W scores more
53%
level
26%
Valadares Gaia W scores more
21%

Racing Seixal W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Racing Seixal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Seixal W vs Valadares Gaia W

Valadares Gaia W beat Racing Seixal W 1-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional in Jamor, Oeiras.