Valadares Gaia W 2–1 Racing Power W: Result & Stats

Valadares Gaia W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Power W

3/21/2026

1a Divisão - Women · Round 14Estadio Dr. Jorge Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Valadares Gaia W40%

×Draw31%

Racing Power W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valadares Gaia WExpected goals in this matchRacing Power W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.86

Valadares Gaia W

1.08

Racing Power W

0.86

Valadares Gaia W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 9 away

1.38

creates per match

0.67

1.05

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Valadares Gaia W

1.38

Racing Power W

0.67

allows per match

Valadares Gaia W

1.05

Racing Power W

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par

Racing Power W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valadares Gaia W ↓

Racing Power W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Valadares Gaia W or draw

71%

Valadares Gaia W or Racing Power W

69%

Draw or Racing Power W

60%

Winning margin

Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+

16%

Racing Power W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals

66%

Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals

29%

Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals

10%

Racing Power W 1+ goals

58%

Racing Power W 2+ goals

21%

Racing Power W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)

58%

Racing Power W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valadares Gaia W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Racing Power W away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.38 + Racing Power W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08

Racing Power W attack 0.67 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Valadares Gaia W scores more

40%

level

31%

Racing Power W scores more

29%

Valadares Gaia W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Valadares Gaia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff