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Racing Power W vs Valadares Gaia W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Racing Power W
Racing Power W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Valadares Gaia W
Valadares Gaia W
11/2/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Racing Power W32%
×Draw26%
Valadares Gaia W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Power W
1.25
Valadares Gaia W
1.46

Valadares Gaia W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 42 away

creates per match

Racing Power W
1.11
Valadares Gaia W
1.14

allows per match

Racing Power W
1.78
Valadares Gaia W
1.40

finishing

Racing Power W+0.00on par
Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Power W ↓

Valadares Gaia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Racing Power W or draw
58%
Racing Power W or Valadares Gaia W
74%
Draw or Valadares Gaia W
68%

Winning margin

Racing Power W wins by 2+
14%
Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Racing Power W 1+ goals
71%
Racing Power W 2+ goals
36%
Racing Power W 3+ goals
13%
Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals
77%
Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals
43%
Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Racing Power W (draw refunded)
44%
Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Power W at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Valadares Gaia W away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Power W attack 1.11 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.14 + Racing Power W defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Racing Power W scores more
32%
level
26%
Valadares Gaia W scores more
42%

Valadares Gaia W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Valadares Gaia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Racing Power W 0–1 Valadares Gaia W

Valadares Gaia W beat Racing Power W 1-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on November 2, 2025.