Valadares Gaia W 6–2 Estoril Praia W

Valadares Gaia W

FT

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Estoril Praia W

5/11/2025

1a Divisão - Women · Round 22Estádio Dr. Jorge Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Valadares Gaia W51%

×Draw22%

Estoril Praia W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valadares Gaia WExpected goals in this matchEstoril Praia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.44

Valadares Gaia W

2.01

Estoril Praia W

1.44

Valadares Gaia W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 11 away

1.38

creates per match

1.82

1.05

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Valadares Gaia W

1.38

Estoril Praia W

1.82

allows per match

Valadares Gaia W

1.05

Estoril Praia W

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par

Estoril Praia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valadares Gaia W ↓

Estoril Praia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Valadares Gaia W or draw

72%

Valadares Gaia W or Estoril Praia W

78%

Draw or Estoril Praia W

49%

Winning margin

Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+

29%

Estoril Praia W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals

87%

Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals

59%

Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals

32%

Estoril Praia W 1+ goals

76%

Estoril Praia W 2+ goals

42%

Estoril Praia W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)

65%

Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valadares Gaia W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Estoril Praia W away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.38 + Estoril Praia W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.01

Estoril Praia W attack 1.82 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Valadares Gaia W scores more

51%

level

22%

Estoril Praia W scores more

28%

Valadares Gaia W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Valadares Gaia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff