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Estoril Praia W vs Valadares Gaia W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Estoril Praia W
Estoril Praia W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Valadares Gaia W
Valadares Gaia W
1/5/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 11Estádio das Seixas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Estoril Praia W27%
×Draw26%
Valadares Gaia W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril Praia W
1.06
Valadares Gaia W
1.48

Valadares Gaia W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 42 away

creates per match

Estoril Praia W
0.73
Valadares Gaia W
1.14

allows per match

Estoril Praia W
1.82
Valadares Gaia W
1.40

finishing

Estoril Praia W+0.00on par
Valadares Gaia W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril Praia W ↓

Valadares Gaia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estoril Praia W or draw
53%
Estoril Praia W or Valadares Gaia W
74%
Draw or Valadares Gaia W
73%

Winning margin

Estoril Praia W wins by 2+
10%
Valadares Gaia W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Estoril Praia W 1+ goals
65%
Estoril Praia W 2+ goals
29%
Estoril Praia W 3+ goals
9%
Valadares Gaia W 1+ goals
77%
Valadares Gaia W 2+ goals
43%
Valadares Gaia W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)
37%
Valadares Gaia W (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril Praia W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Valadares Gaia W away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril Praia W attack 0.73 + Valadares Gaia W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

Valadares Gaia W attack 1.14 + Estoril Praia W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Estoril Praia W scores more
27%
level
26%
Valadares Gaia W scores more
47%

Valadares Gaia W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Valadares Gaia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estoril Praia W vs Valadares Gaia W

Valadares Gaia W beat Estoril Praia W 1-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio das Seixas in Malveira, Mafra.