Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vaca Díez vs Universitario de Vinto — Primera División 2019

Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
8/11/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 23Estadio Roberto Jordan Cuellár

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vaca Díez50%
×Draw25%
Universitario de Vinto26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaca Díez
1.63
Universitario de Vinto
1.10

Vaca Díez creates 48% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 76 away

creates per match

Vaca Díez
1.63
Universitario de Vinto
0.82

allows per match

Vaca Díez
1.38
Universitario de Vinto
1.64

finishing

Vaca Díez+0.00on par
Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaca Díez ↓

Universitario de Vinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vaca Díez or draw
74%
Vaca Díez or Universitario de Vinto
75%
Draw or Universitario de Vinto
50%

Winning margin

Vaca Díez wins by 2+
26%
Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vaca Díez 1+ goals
80%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
48%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
22%
Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
67%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
30%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
66%
Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaca Díez at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Universitario de Vinto away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaca Díez attack 1.63 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Universitario de Vinto attack 0.82 + Vaca Díez defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vaca Díez scores more
50%
level
25%
Universitario de Vinto scores more
26%

Vaca Díez at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vaca Díez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Vaca Díez 0–0 Universitario de Vinto

Vaca Díez and Universitario de Vinto drew 0-0 in Primera División on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Roberto Jordan Cuellár in Cobija.