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Universitario de Vinto vs Vaca Díez — Primera División 2019

Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
3/13/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 6Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Universitario de Vinto55%
×Draw22%
Vaca Díez23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario de Vinto
1.90
Vaca Díez
1.15

Universitario de Vinto creates 65% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 16 away

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.36
Vaca Díez
1.00

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.29
Vaca Díez
2.44

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par
Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

Vaca Díez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw
77%
Universitario de Vinto or Vaca Díez
78%
Draw or Vaca Díez
45%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
31%
Vaca Díez wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
85%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
56%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
29%
Vaca Díez 1+ goals
68%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
32%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
71%
Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more
55%
level
22%
Vaca Díez scores more
23%

Universitario de Vinto at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Universitario de Vinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitario de Vinto vs Vaca Díez

Universitario de Vinto beat Vaca Díez 2-0 in Primera División on March 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.