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Vaca Díez vs Bolívar — Primera División 2019

Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bolívar
Bolívar
11/8/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 25Estadio Roberto Jordan Cuellár

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vaca Díez34%
×Draw23%
Bolívar43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaca Díez
1.48
Bolívar
1.69

Bolívar creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 135 away

creates per match

Vaca Díez
1.63
Bolívar
2.01

allows per match

Vaca Díez
1.38
Bolívar
1.33

finishing

Vaca Díez+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaca Díez ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vaca Díez or draw
57%
Vaca Díez or Bolívar
77%
Draw or Bolívar
66%

Winning margin

Vaca Díez wins by 2+
16%
Bolívar wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vaca Díez 1+ goals
77%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
43%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
19%
Bolívar 1+ goals
82%
Bolívar 2+ goals
50%
Bolívar 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
44%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaca Díez at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Bolívar away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaca Díez attack 1.63 + Bolívar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bolívar attack 2.01 + Vaca Díez defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vaca Díez scores more
34%
level
23%
Bolívar scores more
43%

Bolívar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vaca Díez vs Bolívar

Vaca Díez beat Bolívar 4-3 in Primera División on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Roberto Jordan Cuellár in Cobija.