Bolívar 3–0 Vaca Díez: Result & Stats

Bolívar

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vaca Díez

4/9/2023

Primera División · Round 8Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bolívar74%

×Draw15%

Vaca Díez11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolívarExpected goals in this matchVaca Díez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

0.92

Bolívar

2.69

Vaca Díez

0.92

Bolívar creates 192% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 16 away

2.93

creates per match

1.00

0.84

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Bolívar

2.93

Vaca Díez

1.00

allows per match

Bolívar

0.84

Vaca Díez

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par

Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Vaca Díez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw

89%

Bolívar or Vaca Díez

85%

Draw or Vaca Díez

26%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+

53%

Vaca Díez wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals

93%

Bolívar 2+ goals

74%

Bolívar 3+ goals

49%

Vaca Díez 1+ goals

60%

Vaca Díez 2+ goals

23%

Vaca Díez 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)

88%

Vaca Díez (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.93, concedes 0.84 · 130 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.93 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.69

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Bolívar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Bolívar scores more

74%

level

15%

Vaca Díez scores more

11%

Bolívar at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff