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Vaca Díez vs Aurora — Primera División 2019

Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Aurora
Aurora
6/23/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 17Estadio Roberto Jordan Cuellár

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vaca Díez50%
×Draw24%
Aurora26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaca Díez
1.74
Aurora
1.20

Vaca Díez creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 130 away

creates per match

Vaca Díez
1.63
Aurora
1.02

allows per match

Vaca Díez
1.38
Aurora
1.85

finishing

Vaca Díez+0.00on par
Aurora+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaca Díez ↓

Aurora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vaca Díez or draw
74%
Vaca Díez or Aurora
76%
Draw or Aurora
50%

Winning margin

Vaca Díez wins by 2+
27%
Aurora wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vaca Díez 1+ goals
82%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
52%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
25%
Aurora 1+ goals
70%
Aurora 2+ goals
34%
Aurora 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
65%
Aurora (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaca Díez at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Aurora away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.85 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaca Díez attack 1.63 + Aurora defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.74

Aurora attack 1.02 + Vaca Díez defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vaca Díez scores more
50%
level
24%
Aurora scores more
26%

Vaca Díez at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vaca Díez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vaca Díez vs Aurora

Aurora beat Vaca Díez 3-2 in Primera División on June 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Roberto Jordan Cuellár in Cobija.