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Aurora vs Vaca Díez — Primera División 2019

Aurora
Aurora
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
12/6/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 34Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Aurora58%
×Draw21%
Vaca Díez20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurora
2.02
Vaca Díez
1.10

Aurora creates 84% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 16 away

creates per match

Aurora
1.60
Vaca Díez
1.00

allows per match

Aurora
1.20
Vaca Díez
2.44

finishing

Aurora+0.00on par
Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurora ↓

Vaca Díez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Aurora or draw
80%
Aurora or Vaca Díez
79%
Draw or Vaca Díez
42%

Winning margin

Aurora wins by 2+
35%
Vaca Díez wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aurora 1+ goals
87%
Aurora 2+ goals
60%
Aurora 3+ goals
33%
Vaca Díez 1+ goals
67%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
30%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aurora (draw refunded)
74%
Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurora at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 128 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurora attack 1.60 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.02

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Aurora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Aurora scores more
58%
level
21%
Vaca Díez scores more
20%

Aurora at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Aurora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Aurora 3–0 Vaca Díez

Aurora beat Vaca Díez 3-0 in Primera División on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.