Vaajakoski 1–2 Rops: Result & Stats

Vaajakoski

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rops

M. Sydänmaa 60'

T. Varhi 90'

S. Olabisi 82'

5/14/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 3Viitaniemi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vaajakoski46%

×Draw23%

Rops32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VaajakoskiExpected goals in this matchRops

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.50

Vaajakoski

1.84

Rops

1.50

Vaajakoski creates 23% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 22 away

1.77

creates per match

1.55

1.45

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Vaajakoski

1.77

Rops

1.55

allows per match

Vaajakoski

1.45

Rops

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaajakoski+0.00on par

Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaajakoski ↓

Rops →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Vaajakoski or draw

68%

Vaajakoski or Rops

77%

Draw or Rops

54%

Winning margin

Vaajakoski wins by 2+

25%

Rops wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vaajakoski 1+ goals

84%

Vaajakoski 2+ goals

55%

Vaajakoski 3+ goals

28%

Rops 1+ goals

78%

Rops 2+ goals

44%

Rops 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)

59%

Rops (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaajakoski at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.45 · 60 matches

Rops away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaajakoski attack 1.77 + Rops defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.84

Rops attack 1.55 + Vaajakoski defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vaajakoski scores more

46%

level

23%

Rops scores more

32%

Vaajakoski at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vaajakoski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

S. Saboor← J. Björn

60'

M. Sydänmaa

69'

E. Salmi← M. Sarlin

72'

S. Salim

72'

P. Ruotsalainen← T. Dementjeff

79'

S. Suutari

81'

M. Verkko

81'

R. Häkkinen← M. Sydänmaa

82'

S. Olabisi

89'

A. Lemarie

90+5'

N. Pirttinen

90+2'

V. Ojala← A. Lemarié

90+5'

J. Muikku← K. Isometsä

90'

T. Varhi

Vaajakoski

Rops

1

Märsylä

30

⚽

Olabisi

2

Eronen

4

▼

Dementjef

7

▼

19

10

8

6

16

▼

Isometsä

26

⚽

1

19

6

2

21

18

28

▼

Björn

33

▼

Sarlin

5

Halonen

3

Niemelä

96

⚽

▼

Sydänmaa

Manager: A. Neuvonen

58'▲S. Saboor←▼J. Björn

69'▲E. Salmi←▼M. Sarlin

81'▲R. Häkkinen←▼M. Sydänmaa

Vaajakoski substitutes

11Saboor9Salmi16Häkkinen10Sarkkinen13Toivari24Liimatainen31Säynäjäkangas

Manager: V. Ulanen

72'▲P. Ruotsalainen←▼T. Dementjeff

90+2'▲V. Ojala←▼A. Lemarié

90+5'▲J. Muikku←▼K. Isometsä

Rops substitutes

13Ruotsalainen17Ojala20Muikku12Korhonen

Kakkonen - Lohko C: Vaajakoski 1–2 Rops

Rops beat Vaajakoski 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 14, 2023.

Goals: M. Sydänmaa (60'), S. Olabisi (82'), T. Varhi (90').

The match was played at Viitaniemi tekonurmi in Jyväskylä.

Vaajakoski vs Rops — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Kakkonen - Lohko C: Vaajakoski 1–2 Rops