Rops 4–2 Vaajakoski: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Rops

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Vaajakoski

T. Lakela 78'

S. Roiha 51'

A. Savolainen 44', 31'

M. Verkko 62'

B. Simsek 60'

5/18/2024

Ykkönen · Round 6Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Rops64%

×Draw18%

Vaajakoski18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RopsExpected goals in this matchVaajakoski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.25

Rops

2.49

Vaajakoski

1.25

Rops creates 99% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 14 away

1.98

creates per match

1.07

1.42

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Rops

1.98

Vaajakoski

1.07

allows per match

Rops

1.42

Vaajakoski

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rops+0.00on par

Vaajakoski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

Vaajakoski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Rops or draw

82%

Rops or Vaajakoski

82%

Draw or Vaajakoski

36%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+

42%

Vaajakoski wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals

92%

Rops 2+ goals

71%

Rops 3+ goals

45%

Vaajakoski 1+ goals

71%

Vaajakoski 2+ goals

36%

Vaajakoski 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)

78%

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.42 · 48 matches

Vaajakoski away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 1.98 + Vaajakoski defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.49

Vaajakoski attack 1.07 + Rops defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Rops scores more

64%

level

18%

Vaajakoski scores more

18%

Rops at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Rops will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

A. Savolainen

33'

L. Suutarinen

44'

A. Savolainen

46'

M. Liimatainen← L. Suutarinen

51'

S. Roiha

60'

B. Simsek

62'

M. Verkko

63'

R. Hakkinen

64'

R. Honko← D. Selin

73'

P. Mehtonen← B. Montonen

76'

T. Lakela← V. Vatanen

78'

T. Lakela

82'

E. Irvankoski← T. Dementjeff

84'

86'

90'

90+2'

Rops

Vaajakoski

1

Poltto

2

Pirttinen

28

▼

Selin

27

▼

Suutarine

19

⚽

Verkko

20

⚽

Simsek

14

▼

5

11

12

9

1

86

26

18

6

4

▼

Dementjef

10

Niska

14

Polvi

20

⚽

▼

Roiha

22

⚽2

Savolaine

7

▼

Vatanen

Manager: J. Alamäki

76'▲T. Lakela←▼V. Vatanen

82'▲E. Irvankoski←▼T. Dementjeff

86'▲T. Varhi←▼S. Roiha

Rops substitutes

8Lakela23Irvankoski11Varhi5Ilola12Rantala15Wimmer25Leppänen

Manager: A. Neuvonen

46'▲M. Liimatainen←▼L. Suutarinen

64'▲R. Honko←▼D. Selin

73'▲P. Mehtonen←▼B. Montonen

Vaajakoski substitutes

24Liimatainen29Honko23Mehtonen3Sarkkinen25Tuokkola