V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Urawa: Result & Stats

V-varen Nagasaki

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Urawa

M. Suzuki 44' (pen)

Z. Ljubijankič 76'

3/10/2018

J1 League · Round 3Nagasaki Prefectural Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki41%

×Draw26%

Urawa33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

V-varen NagasakiExpected goals in this matchUrawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.27

V-varen Nagasaki

1.45

Urawa

1.27

V-varen Nagasaki creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 46 away

1.29

creates per match

1.12

1.42

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.29

Urawa

1.12

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.42

Urawa

1.61

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki-0.29scores less

Urawa-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Urawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw

67%

V-varen Nagasaki or Urawa

74%

Draw or Urawa

59%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

20%

Urawa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

77%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

42%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

18%

Urawa 1+ goals

72%

Urawa 2+ goals

36%

Urawa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

56%

Urawa (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.42 · 7 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.29 + Urawa defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Urawa attack 1.12 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

41%

level

26%

Urawa scores more

33%

V-varen Nagasaki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

H. Onaga

V-varen Nagasaki · M

8.6

Match Events

44'

M. SuzukiPenalty

67'

K. Taketomi← K. Nagasawa

71'

D. Tagami← R. Takasugi

71'

Z. Ljubijankič← Q. Martinus

76'

Z. Ljubijankič↳ Y. Kashiwagi

79'

S. Nakahara← T. Sawada

82'

D. Kikuchi← T. Ugajin

84'

K. Nakamura← Y. Shimada

85'

Juanma Delgado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

V-varenUrawa

Overview

27%Possession73%

8Total Shots15

3Corners5

27Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots15

4On Target4

3Off Target6

1Blocked5

5Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

27%Possession73%

236Total Passes658

160Accurate Passes576

68%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

27Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2

Match Recap: V-varen Nagasaki vs Urawa

V-varen Nagasaki and Urawa drew 1-1 in J1 League on March 10, 2018.

Goals: M. Suzuki (44' pen), Z. Ljubijankič (76').

Urawa controlled possession (73%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Nagasaki Prefectural Stadium in Isahaya.

V-varen Nagasaki vs Urawa — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: V-varen Nagasaki vs Urawa