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Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — J1 League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
8/5/2018J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 20Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Urawa54%
×Draw25%
V-varen Nagasaki22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.62
V-varen Nagasaki
0.93

Urawa creates 74% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 7 away

creates per match

Urawa
1.33
V-varen Nagasaki
0.77

allows per match

Urawa
1.09
V-varen Nagasaki
1.91

finishing

Urawa+0.08on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
78%
Urawa or V-varen Nagasaki
75%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
46%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
29%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
80%
Urawa 2+ goals
48%
Urawa 3+ goals
22%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
61%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
24%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
71%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 39 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.33 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.62

V-varen Nagasaki attack 0.77 + Urawa defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Urawa scores more
54%
level
25%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
22%

Urawa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
K. TokushigeV-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki · G
8.9

Match Events

18'
Maurício Antônio
40'
Yosuke Kashiwagi
59'
Y. Abe← T. Aoki
67'
S. Yoneda← T. Sawada
73'
R. Isomura← Y. Shimada
81'
T. Lee← Y. Muto
84'
R. Moriwaki← D. Hashioka
86'
Tomoya Ugajin
87'
D. Tagami← Y. Tokunaga

Possession

Urawa: 70V-varen: 3070%Urawa

Shots

Urawa: 17V-varen: 1217Urawa

Pass accuracy

Urawa: 82V-varen: 6655%Urawa

Statistics

UrawaV-varen
Overview
70%Possession30%
17Total Shots12
11Corners4
17Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots12
7On Target3
6Off Target7
4Blocked2
7Inside Box7
10Outside Box5
Passing
70%Possession30%
474Total Passes196
391Accurate Passes130
82%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
17Fouls15
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki

Urawa and V-varen Nagasaki drew 0-0 in J1 League on August 5, 2018.

Urawa controlled possession (70%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium in Saitama.