V-varen Nagasaki 1–0 Tokushima Vortis

V-varen Nagasaki

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tokushima Vortis

3/15/2025

J2 League · Round 5Peace Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki41%

×Draw27%

Tokushima Vortis32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

V-varen NagasakiExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.16

V-varen Nagasaki

1.33

Tokushima Vortis

1.16

V-varen Nagasaki creates 15% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 147 away

1.65

creates per match

1.19

1.13

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.65

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.13

Tokushima Vortis

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw

68%

V-varen Nagasaki or Tokushima Vortis

73%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

59%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

19%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

74%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

38%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

15%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

69%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

32%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

56%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.65 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

41%

level

27%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

32%

V-varen Nagasaki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff