Tokushima Vortis 2–2 V-varen Nagasaki

Tokushima Vortis

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

V-varen Nagasaki

6/29/2024

J2 League · Round 22Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Tokushima Vortis39%

×Draw27%

V-varen Nagasaki34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchV-varen Nagasaki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.19

Tokushima Vortis

1.28

V-varen Nagasaki

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 146 home / 143 away

1.31

creates per match

1.48

0.90

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.31

V-varen Nagasaki

1.48

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.90

V-varen Nagasaki

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

66%

Tokushima Vortis or V-varen Nagasaki

73%

Draw or V-varen Nagasaki

61%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

17%

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

72%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

37%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

14%

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

70%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

33%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

53%

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.48 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

39%

level

27%

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

34%

Tokushima Vortis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff