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V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Oh Se-Hun 45' (pen), 1'
Y. Shimamoto 4'
4/5/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 9Peace Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki37%
×Draw27%
Shimizu S-pulse35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.25
Shimizu S-pulse
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 35 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.00
Shimizu S-pulse
1.03

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.38
Shimizu S-pulse
1.51

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
65%
V-varen Nagasaki or Shimizu S-pulse
73%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
63%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
16%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
71%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
36%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
13%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
70%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
34%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
51%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.00 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
37%
level
27%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
35%

V-varen Nagasaki at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Oh Se-HunShimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse · F
8.5

Match Events

1'
Oh Se-Hun
4'
Y. Shimamoto↳ K. Inoue
45+1'
Jelani Reshaun SumiyoshiGoal confirmed
45'
Oh Se-HunPenalty
46'
Dudu Giusti← M. Sekiguchi
46'
R. Yamasaki← H. Onaga
46'
K. Kozuka← K. Inoue
73'
H. Hidaka← K. Kitazume
74'
T. Takahashi← Y. Shimamoto
77'
S. Hasukawa← S. Takagi
83'
T. Kasayanagi← S. Yoneda
83'
T. Matsumoto← Diego Pituca
89'
A. Stephens← Oh Se-Hun
90+6'
Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi
90+3'
K. Takahata← M. Hasegawa

Possession

54%V-varen

Shots

7V-varen

Pass accuracy

51%V-varen

Statistics

V-varenShimizu
Overview
54%Possession46%
7Total Shots11
0.53Expected Goals (xG)1.22
4Corners4
10Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots11
1On Target4
4Off Target3
2Blocked4
3Inside Box6
4Outside Box5
Passing
54%Possession46%
559Total Passes464
459Accurate Passes373
82%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

J1 League: V-varen Nagasaki 0–3 Shimizu S-pulse

Shimizu S-pulse beat V-varen Nagasaki 3-0 in J1 League on April 5, 2026.

Goals: Oh Se-Hun (1', 45' pen), Y. Shimamoto (4').

V-varen Nagasaki controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Peace Stadium in Nagasaki.