Shimizu S-pulse 1–2 V-varen Nagasaki

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

V-varen Nagasaki

Y. Shimamoto 21'

M. Hasegawa 46'

Thiago 33'

4/29/2026

J1 League · Round 13IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse35%

×Draw26%

V-varen Nagasaki39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchV-varen Nagasaki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.35

Shimizu S-pulse

1.27

V-varen Nagasaki

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 10 away

1.15

creates per match

1.10

1.59

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.15

V-varen Nagasaki

1.10

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.59

V-varen Nagasaki

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

61%

Shimizu S-pulse or V-varen Nagasaki

74%

Draw or V-varen Nagasaki

65%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

15%

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

72%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

36%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

14%

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

74%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

39%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

47%

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.15 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.10 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

35%

level

26%

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

39%

V-varen Nagasaki at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

M. Hasegawa

V-varen Nagasaki · F

7.9

Match Events

8'

Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi

21'

Y. Shimamoto

27'

Riku Yamada

33'

Thiago↳ I. Arai

36'

Onaga Hijiri

46'

S. Hasukawa← K. Kozuka

46'

M. Hasegawa↳ Dudu Giusti

61'

R. Yamasaki← R. Yamada

61'

Diego Pituca← Dudu Giusti

63'

Z. Uno← M. Yumiba

70'

Capixaba← Y. Shimamoto

72'

Y. Iwasaki← Thiago

83'

Y. Honda← Park Seung-Wook

83'

T. Takahashi← H. Hidaka

90+3'

K. Takahata← S. Yoneda

90+3'

T. Sawada← T. Matsumoto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuV-varen

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots18

0.57Expected Goals (xG)1.30

3Corners4

10Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots18

1On Target6

1Off Target7

5Blocked5

5Inside Box11

2Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

345Total Passes463

255Accurate Passes382

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls7

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

J1 League: Shimizu S-pulse 1–2 V-varen Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki beat Shimizu S-pulse 2-1 in J1 League on April 29, 2026.

Goals: Y. Shimamoto (21'), Thiago (33'), M. Hasegawa (46').

V-varen Nagasaki controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.

Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki — J1 League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Shimizu S-pulse 1–2 V-varen Nagasaki