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V-varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
Preview
10:00
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
8/9/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 1Peace Stadium
Big match
39%
Kyoto Sanga
model favours
35%26%39%

Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki35%
×Draw26%
Kyoto Sanga39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.26
Kyoto Sanga
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 80 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.20
Kyoto Sanga
1.16

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.56
Kyoto Sanga
1.32

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
61%
V-varen Nagasaki or Kyoto Sanga
74%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
65%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
15%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
72%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
36%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
13%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
74%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
39%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
47%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.20 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
35%
level
26%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
39%

Kyoto Sanga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • V-varen Nagasaki win just 10% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Nagasaki
LWWLD
Sanga
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V-varen Nagasaki face Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)

J1 League returns with V-varen Nagasaki hosting Kyoto Sanga. Match starts August 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

V-varen Nagasaki host Kyoto Sanga at Peace Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.