V-varen Nagasaki 2–0 Kyoto Sanga: Result & Stats

V-varen Nagasaki

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kyoto Sanga

10/2/2021

J2 League · Round 32Transcosmos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki45%

×Draw26%

Kyoto Sanga29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

V-varen NagasakiExpected goals in this matchKyoto Sanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.12

V-varen Nagasaki

1.45

Kyoto Sanga

1.12

V-varen Nagasaki creates 29% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 84 away

1.65

creates per match

1.11

1.13

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.65

Kyoto Sanga

1.11

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.13

Kyoto Sanga

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Kyoto Sanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw

71%

V-varen Nagasaki or Kyoto Sanga

74%

Draw or Kyoto Sanga

55%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

22%

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

77%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

42%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

18%

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

67%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

31%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

60%

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.65 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.11 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

45%

level

26%

Kyoto Sanga scores more

29%

V-varen Nagasaki at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff