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Kyoto Sanga vs V-varen Nagasaki — J2 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
12/2/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 38Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kyoto Sanga38%
×Draw27%
V-varen Nagasaki36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.29
V-varen Nagasaki
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 143 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.33
V-varen Nagasaki
1.48

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.01
V-varen Nagasaki
1.25

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
64%
Kyoto Sanga or V-varen Nagasaki
73%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
62%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
17%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
72%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
37%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
14%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
71%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
36%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
51%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.48 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
38%
level
27%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
36%

Kyoto Sanga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kyoto Sanga 2–1 V-varen Nagasaki

Kyoto Sanga beat V-varen Nagasaki 2-1 in J2 League on December 2, 2020.

The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.