V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Gamba Osaka: Result & Stats

V-varen Nagasaki

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gamba Osaka

Matheus Jesus 78' (pen)

D. Hummet 80'

4/25/2026

J1 League · Round 12Peace Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki38%

×Draw26%

Gamba Osaka36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

V-varen NagasakiExpected goals in this matchGamba Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.32

V-varen Nagasaki

1.35

Gamba Osaka

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 143 away

1.21

creates per match

1.10

1.54

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.21

Gamba Osaka

1.10

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.54

Gamba Osaka

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Gamba Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw

64%

V-varen Nagasaki or Gamba Osaka

74%

Draw or Gamba Osaka

62%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

17%

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

74%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

39%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

15%

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

73%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

38%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

51%

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.50 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.21 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gamba Osaka attack 1.10 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

38%

level

26%

Gamba Osaka scores more

36%

V-varen Nagasaki at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

R. Araki

Gamba Osaka · G

9.5

Match Events

13'

R. Yamashita← Welton

38'

T. Usami← I. Jebali

46'

T. Yamamoto← S. Abe

63'

Matheus Jesus← Thiago

63'

T. Matsumoto← N. Campbell

78'

Matheus JesusPenalty

80'

D. Hummet↳ R. Yamashita

81'

S. Nakano← R. Hatsuse

81'

H. Minamino← R. Meshino

85'

Eduardo

87'

R. Yamasaki← M. Hasegawa

87'

Y. Iwasaki← R. Yamada

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

V-varenGamba

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots17

1.87Expected Goals (xG)1.96

7Corners8

11Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots17

4On Target7

4Off Target5

3Blocked5

7Inside Box11

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

304Total Passes392

206Accurate Passes291

68%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1