Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gamba Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
FT
5 – 5
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
2/1/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Gosamaru Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gamba Osaka48%
×Draw18%
V-varen Nagasaki33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gamba Osaka
2.79
V-varen Nagasaki
2.33

Gamba Osaka creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gamba Osaka
2.83
V-varen Nagasaki
2.50

allows per match

Gamba Osaka
2.17
V-varen Nagasaki
2.75

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw
67%
Gamba Osaka or V-varen Nagasaki
82%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
52%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+
30%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals
94%
Gamba Osaka 2+ goals
76%
Gamba Osaka 3+ goals
52%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
90%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
67%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)
59%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 2.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 2.83 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.79

V-varen Nagasaki attack 2.50 + Gamba Osaka defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more
48%
level
18%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
33%

Gamba Osaka at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Gamba
V-varen
Daniel Poyatos Algaba
Manager: Daniel Poyatos Algaba
Takuya Takagi
Manager: Takuya Takagi

Friendlies Clubs: Gamba Osaka 5–5 V-varen Nagasaki

Gamba Osaka and V-varen Nagasaki drew 5-5 in Friendlies Clubs on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Gosamaru Athletic Field in Nakagusuku.