V-varen Nagasaki 2–1 Fagiano Okayama

V-varen Nagasaki

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Fagiano Okayama

Thiago 43'

Y. Iwasaki 19'

Werik Popo 50'

5/6/2026

J1 League · Round 15Peace Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki37%

×Draw26%

Fagiano Okayama36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

V-varen NagasakiExpected goals in this matchFagiano Okayama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.31

V-varen Nagasaki

1.33

Fagiano Okayama

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

1.21

creates per match

1.08

1.54

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.21

Fagiano Okayama

1.08

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.54

Fagiano Okayama

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Fagiano Okayama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw

64%

V-varen Nagasaki or Fagiano Okayama

74%

Draw or Fagiano Okayama

63%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

17%

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

74%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

38%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

15%

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

73%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

38%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

51%

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.21 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.08 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

37%

level

26%

Fagiano Okayama scores more

36%

V-varen Nagasaki at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

Werik Popo

Fagiano Okayama · F

7.9

Match Events

19'

Y. Iwasaki↳ G. Hatano

34'

T. Kasayanagi← Y. Iwasaki

37'

Noah Kenshin Browne

43'

Thiago↳ R. Yamada

46'

T. Yamane← N. Browne

46'

Leo Gaucho← K. Ichimi

46'

H. Motoyama← D. Tagami

50'

Werik Popo↳ A. Esaka

62'

Lucao← Werik Popo

64'

H. Yamaguchi← R. Yamada

72'

K. Kushibiki← Dudu Giusti

72'

R. Yamasaki← Thiago

72'

S. Yoneda← K. Takahata

72'

J. Nishikawa← M. Matsumoto

90+1'

Motoki Hasegawa

90+4'

Lucão

90+3'

LucãoCard reviewed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

V-varenFagiano

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots8

1.33Expected Goals (xG)0.52

5Corners3

10Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target3

6Off Target4

2Blocked1

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

358Total Passes371

221Accurate Passes243

62%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

J1 League: V-varen Nagasaki 2–1 Fagiano Okayama

V-varen Nagasaki beat Fagiano Okayama 2-1 in J1 League on May 6, 2026.

Goals: Y. Iwasaki (19'), Thiago (43'), Werik Popo (50').

Fagiano Okayama controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Peace Stadium in Nagasaki.

V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: V-varen Nagasaki 2–1 Fagiano Okayama