Fagiano Okayama 0–1 V-varen Nagasaki

Fagiano Okayama

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

V-varen Nagasaki

R. Yamasaki 90'

3/21/2026

J1 League · Round 8City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Fagiano Okayama54%

×Draw23%

V-varen Nagasaki23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchV-varen Nagasaki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.10

Fagiano Okayama

1.81

V-varen Nagasaki

1.10

Fagiano Okayama creates 65% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.52

creates per match

1.02

1.18

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.52

V-varen Nagasaki

1.02

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.18

V-varen Nagasaki

2.11

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.52scores less

V-varen Nagasaki+0.38scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

77%

Fagiano Okayama or V-varen Nagasaki

77%

Draw or V-varen Nagasaki

46%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

30%

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

84%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

54%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

27%

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

67%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

30%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

70%

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.18 · 9 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.11 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.52 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.81

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.02 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

54%

level

23%

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

23%

Fagiano Okayama at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

G. Hatano

V-varen Nagasaki · G

7.6

Match Events

46'

K. Ichimi← K. Kawano

59'

M. Matsumoto← H. Motoyama

59'

R. Yamasaki← N. Campbell

68'

Kamiya Yuta← A. Esaka

68'

Werik Popo← Lucao

69'

H. Onaga← S. Yoneda

69'

I. Arai← Dudu Giusti

77'

Hiroshi Omori

77'

T. Kimura← E. Miyamoto

83'

M. Hasegawa← T. Matsumoto

83'

R. Yamada← Diego Pituca

90'

R. Yamasaki↳ Y. Iwasaki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FagianoV-varen

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots9

1.02Expected Goals (xG)0.63

5Corners5

10Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots9

2On Target4

8Off Target3

2Blocked2

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

412Total Passes352

316Accurate Passes239

77%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2